The November US elections have now really started to take focus and have an even bigger hold on the future short term and longer term direction of the markets.
The other back story is US interest rates, now with a 58% probability that they could rise in December, which would have a significant impact on struggling Emerging Market countries as well as the US Dollar and domestic equity markets.
Business as usual and likely to continue again into this week: A strong JPY, weak GBP and directionless USD. AUD is the surprise package of the last week putting in a run of continued strength. In Emerging Markets, Mexico and The Philippines look weak against the USD and Brazil, South Korea & Taiwan much stronger.
The FTSE 100 and the US indices – S&P 500 will all be about testing the historical highs.Will they have the momentum and strength to break up and through? In terms of events this week, there doesn’t look like much to give them the necessary spark.
One commodity will be the focus this week – Oil. OPEC meet in Algeria this week to look to set some parameters around controlling production and supply. If they can come to an agreement (which is highly unlikely), expect a possible bullish short term future price scenario. If not, this should only fuel greater downside momentum.
In the rest of the commodities complex, the ‘Softs’ are looking strong: Sugar No11, Coffee and FCOJ.
If you would like to find out how you could profit from trading the financial markets, join us for breakfast on Saturday 1st October at our Introductory Seminar at Eastwell Manor Hotel. Book your place here.
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Information provided by Stephen Hoad BA Hons, MSc, MSTA – full time trader, technical analyst and one of the UK’s leading trader trainers. He currently lectures for the Society of Technical Analysts.